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US tariffs slash Brazilian coffee exports
US tariffs of 50% on Brazilian coffee cut August shipments to the US by 46.6%, with Cecafé blaming lower production, logistics bottlenecks, and contract delays. Cooperatives continue fulfilling futures sales, but new deals stall. Cecafé warns the impact will deepen from September and pursues talks with US industry groups despite reciprocity law tensions.Domestic prices surge amid tight supply
Brazil’s domestic coffee market saw sharp price increases in August, with robusta rising 43% to R$1,469.43 per 60-kg bag and arabica up 26.3% to R$2,287.56. CEPEA attributes the surge to tight stocks, post-harvest losses, limited production, and ongoing US tariffs, which continue to drive volatility in the national market.
Keurig acquisition of JDE Peet’s raises concerns
Keurig Dr Pepper’s $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet’s, owner of Pilão and L’OR, alarms coffee market players due to massive market concentration. The new Global Coffee Co., launching in 2026, will manage 125 coffee lines, 40+ factories, and $16 billion in annual sales, potentially reshaping global coffee trade and enabling strategic moves around US tariffs.
2025 harvest revised down to 63M bags
Brazil’s 2025 coffee harvest was revised down to 63.35 million 60-kg bags, a 3.3% drop from earlier forecasts, with arabica production falling 6% to 38.05 million bags. Conilon/robusta mitigates losses but doesn’t fully offset them. Exports are projected to fall 11%, while extremely low stocks keep prices high and supply fragile.
StoneX forecasts robusta production increase
Brazil’s coffee production continues to face climate challenges, especially affecting arabica. StoneX estimates robusta output at 25.8 million bags, up 21.9%, while Espírito Santo’s conilon harvest is projected at 19.2 million bags, a 28.9% increase from 2024/25.
Russia boosts imports of Brazilian coffee
Despite the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, Russia is increasingly importing Brazilian coffee. From January to July 2025, Russia bought 732,300 bags, up from 598,000 the previous year, including a 267% surge in specialty coffee. Russian buyers visited Espírito Santo and Rondônia farms, eyeing options as US tariffs restrict exports.